Will Prevented Planting Acres Spring a Surprise?

by David Widmar

There has been a lot of talk about Spring planting progress and yield concerns in light of cool, wet May weather. Further speculation about the 2017 crop has been fueled by media reports of higher than normal replant acres. While there is little doubt the weather has resulted in reduced yield potential for some, it’s likely too early to understand what the overall, national impacts might be. While yields are important, an often overlooked weather impact is prevented plantings; acres that were intended for planting but never happened. This week’s post take a look at historic prevented planting acres and considers the impact of a swing in these acres. Continue reading

Who Hasn’t Had Big Crop Yields During the Ag Slowdown?

By Brent Gloy & David Widmar

Since 2014, U.S. farmers have managed to produce very large corn, soybean, and wheat crops. These, and large crops around the world, have weighed on prices and created a major economic downturn for U.S. farmers.  While record large crops have meant most farmers have enjoyed high yields, U.S. production takes place across a very wide and diverse geography.  As such, some producers have seen high yields while others may have been less fortunate.

This week we look at county level corn, soybean, and wheat yields to better understand how crop yields have varied across the country during the economic downturn.  Areas where yields have been particularly high should have weathered the economic downturn better than areas where yields may not have been quite so good. Continue reading

Two Corn Yield Myths in 2017

by David A. Widmar

Large yields and growing grain stocks have been a driving force of commodity markets in recent years. Given the multi-year pressure on commodity prices, the annual question of ‘how big will the crop be’ seems to be even more relevant this year. While there is a lot of growing season – and planting – that remains, speculation began months ago. This week’s posts looks at two myths we’ve heard in recent months about yields and the 2017 corn crop. Continue reading