ARC-CO Yield Guarantees Increase Across Much of the Country

by Brent Gloy

Direct farm program payments have again become a critical component of net farm income.  In 2016 direct farm program payments are forecast to account for $13 billion of the sector’s $68 billion (19%) of net farm income.  At $5.9 billion the ARC-CO program is by far the largest category of direct farm program payments.

As we have discussed before, the price guarantees of the ARC-CO program have already begun to decline and this decline will likely accelerate for the 2017 crop year.  However, ARC-CO is a revenue based program, so guarantees are also dependent upon county level yield histories.  Given that the U.S. has harvested three very large corn and soybean crops in a row, we thought it would be interesting to see how the county level yields have changed over the course of the program.  Continue reading

Where the Farm Income Boom Happened (and Didn’t)

ag trends. agricultural economic insights

by David A. Widmar

We have frequently written about the expansion and subsequent contraction of the U.S. farm income. While most of our previous work has focused on sector-level trends across the U.S. farm economy, we have anecdotally noted these trends likely vary at the local, state, and regional levels. Thinking about these variations, we previously looked at how changes in farmland values have varied across the country. To provide more insight on the variations in the farm economy, this week’s post considers state-level changes in net farm income during the boom and contraction. Continue reading

2017 Soybean Acre Madness

by David Widmar and Brent Gloy

When you think of March, two big events come to mind: the NCAA’s March Madness and the USDA’s Planting Intentions report. In both cases, speculation and anticipation is in full force on how the brackets and balance sheets will sort out. Furthermore, both the NCAA tournament and U.S. spring crop plantings will likely have a few surprises.

This week’s post takes a look at the latest crop insurance and commodity price data to provide some insights on what 2017 planting might have in store. Continue reading