What Might El Nino have in Store for Wheat?

Wheat Image

by David Widmar

One of the biggest stories of the summer was the strong El Nino conditions. By several measures, current conditions are among the strongest El Nino measurements in history (Secord or third highest since 1950). Recent media articles have also citied El Nino related agricultural production issues to higher dairy, sugar, palm oil, and wheat prices. It appears, however, that the most significant impact will occur this winter.

This got us wondering how current El Nino conditions might impact the winter wheat crop. Similar to our post earlier this summer, which considered corn and soybean yields, this week we take a look at historic El Nino conditions to glean potential insights for the US winter wheat crop. Continue reading

Will El Nino be a Bin-Buster?

ElNino Yields

by David A. Widmar and Brent A. Gloy

One of the top stories in agriculture for 2015 will likely be the impact the current El Nino has on production. Earlier this spring an official El Nino was declared and is expected to last until 2016. It appears the event predicted for last summer has finally arrived.

There is great interest, and concern, over exactly how El Nino conditions could impact the summer growing season for corn and soybeans in the U.S.  Much work has been done looking at the temperature and precipitation patterns of El Nino events, but these are often very general. This led us to look into how historic El Nino conditions have overlapped with corn and soybean yields.

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