Clues From Crop Insurance Price Discovery


by Brent Gloy

Planting intentions for 2016 will draw considerable attention in the coming months. Crop insurance guarantees are one factor which will play into this decision. As we pointed out last year, crop insurance guarantees have fallen considerably in the past two years and barring a rally, guarantee prices are likely to be lower again this year.

At current levels, crop insurance will not guarantee revenue sufficient to cover variable costs plus land rents. The relative levels of corn and soybean prices are similar to last year and do not appear to suggest a large shift in acres from last year. Continue reading

Will Farm Income Fall in 2016?


By Brent Gloy

U.S. farm income has fallen sharply in the last two years. One of the key questions facing agriculture is whether farm income will decline for a third straight year.  Below we offer our perspective on this question.  Continue reading

The 12 Questions Production Agriculture Will Face in 2016

Questions Production Agriculture Will Face in 2016

by Brent Gloy and David Widmar

Coming off two years of very large declines in farm incomes, will 2016 be the year the situation stabilizes? If not, will the strong financial condition of the sector hold?  What will happen with land values?  What wildcards are in the deck?  Given the last two years, the stakes are perhaps as high as they have been in a while.  As we head into the new year we put together a list of questions production agricultural will face in 2016 and some thoughts on the topics that we will be thinking about. Continue reading